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KnaveOfAllTrades comments on You’re Entitled to Everyone’s Opinion - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (23)
Oops, I didn't actually read 7 and assumed it was public opinion had grown more positive. Given the two choices actually presented, I'd say 7 more likely.
Edit: Relative credences (not necessarily probabilities since I'm conditioning on there being significant effect sizes), generated naively trying not to worry too much about second-guessing how you distributed intuitive and counterintuitive results:
1:07 : 33:67
2:08 : 33:67
3:09 : 67:33
4:10 : 40:60
5:11 : 45:55
6:12 : 85:15
(Couple of side notes inspired by your edit.)
I considered asking for people's credence in each claim with probability polls, but reckoned that'd discourage responses, due to the extra effort needed to ensure coherence. (With 1 vs. 7, for instance, one would also have to think about the probability that neither claim's true.)
When distributing the pairs across the lists, I had R flip six virtual coins to decide whether to swap the places of each pair after I'd written them. So it should be nice & random, making second guessing unnecessary...although I guess no one else can be 100% sure I'm telling the truth here!