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KatjaGrace comments on Superintelligence Reading Group 2: Forecasting AI - Less Wrong Discussion
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Given all this inaccuracy, and potential for bias, what should we make of the predictions of AI experts? Should we take them at face value? Try to correct them for biases we think they might have, then listen to them? Treat them as completely uninformative?
I guess we risk double-correcting: presumably Eliezer has already thought about the impact of biases on his forecast, and adjusted it accordingly. (Ok, there is no need really to presume, as he has written at length about doing so).
AI experts get their prediction on the basis of many aspects. Maybe it could be possible to compile a questionaire to document bias and reasons for their prediction.