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Jeff_Alexander comments on Superintelligence Reading Group 2: Forecasting AI - Less Wrong Discussion
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Which concerns are more pressing? How was this assessed? I don't object to other things being more important, but I do find the suggestion there are more pressing concerns if AI is a bit further out one of the least persuasive aspects of the readings given the lack of comparison & calculation.
I agree with all of this, more or less. Perhaps I didn't state my caveats strongly enough. I just want an explicit comparison attempted (e.g., given a 10% chance of AI in 20 years, 50% in 50 years, 70% within 100 years, etc., the expected value of working on AI now vs. synthetic biology risk reduction, healthy human life extension, making the species multi-planetary, raising the rationality waterline, etc.) and presented before accepting that AI is only worth thinking about if it's near.