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gallabytes comments on Superintelligence Reading Group 2: Forecasting AI - Less Wrong Discussion
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The answer to this question depends really heavily on my estimation of MIRI's capability as an organization and on how hard the control problem turns out to be. My current answer is "the moment the control problem is solved and not a moment sooner", but I don't have enough of a grip on the other difficulties involved to say when that would be more concrete.