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drethelin comments on Open thread, September 22-28, 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion
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I think it's related to this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reference_class_problem Once you can categorize a theory into a certain reference class you use your priors for that reference class rather than for similarly improbably problems of a more generic nature
Huh, this is the only reasonable reply in the whole thread and it is largely ignored.