I'd throw in a modifier that people are most likely to believe true things about areas where they have direct experience and get feedback. It's something like near and far, and the near has to be very near. Give extra points if the experience is recent.
The less a theory meets those constraints, the less you should think belief is evidence that it's true.
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
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