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Gunnar_Zarncke comments on Open thread, September 22-28, 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Modus ponens can be demonstrated to be a valid assumption by drawing up a truth table. How do you demonstrate that "people are more likely to believe true things"?
Using truth tables seems more complicated than modus ponens. I would expict it would be better to use modus ponens to justify truth tables as opposed to the other way around. Regardless, you need to start with something. You can't justify modus ponens to a rock.
If you don't think people are more likely to believe true things, then how do you justify any of that stuff you just said being true?