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shminux comments on I may have just had a dangerous thought. - Less Wrong Discussion

0 Post author: Eitan_Zohar 22 September 2014 08:04PM

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Comment author: shminux 22 September 2014 09:32:48PM 1 point [-]

A few notes:

  • I estimated the odds, I did not say I would take a bet. There is a large difference.
  • risky behavior does not need to (anti)correlate with the ability to keep someone else's secrets.

That said, I tend to agree that there are plenty of other people on this forum better qualified to evaluate if an idea is dangerous. However, the odds (here it is, again) of Eitan's idea needing high qualifications to evaluate are tiny.

Comment author: ShardPhoenix 22 September 2014 11:52:58PM *  7 points [-]

I estimated the odds, I did not say I would take a bet. There is a large difference.

I don't think there should be a difference. In practice the friction of actually making the bet is generally too high to bother, but in principle if you're giving odds you should be willing to make a small bet at (slightly better than) those odds.

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