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VAuroch comments on Open thread, Sept. 29 - Oct.5, 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Much more than 4 years and you're getting dangerously close to the points when the production drops off and the supply of new coins dries up, which will trigger a partial or total burst of the Bitcoin bubble. That might not render the Bitcoin valueless (though I think it will), but will certainly make them bad investments.
I consider this a near-certainty within 8 years, and a significant risk starting around 5 years from now. It's a minor risk even now, but I don't expect it to blow up until at least the next reward-halving.
That doesn't make any economic sense. Right now bitcoin is being inflated, which means people are spending hundreds of millions of dollars a year to keep the price stable (or not, as it is dropping). Get rid of the subsidy and demand would drive the price up, not down.
I disagree. The reward halvings cannot come soon enough for bitcoin. Right now bitcoin (the community of bitcoin holders) is spending hundreds of millions of dollars a year in order to secure the network (in the form of new coins being created and sold onto the market). This has been pressuring the bitcoin price all year. Hundreds of millions in would-be bitcoin investment, sucked into mining hardware and electricity costs.
Here is a excellent video discussing this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-TLA3j-ic4