Rationality Quotes October 2014

Tyrrell_McAllister

Another month, another rationality quotes thread. The rules are:

Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be upvoted or downvoted separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post them together.)
Do not quote yourself.
Do not quote from Less Wrong itself, HPMoR, Eliezer Yudkowsky, or Robin Hanson. If you'd like to revive an old quote from one of those sources, please do so here.
No more than 5 quotes per person per monthly thread, please.
Provide sufficient information (URL, title, date, page number, etc.) to enable a reader to find the place where you read the quote, or its original source if available. Do not quote with only a name.

Another month, another rationality quotes thread. The rules are:

Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be upvoted or downvoted separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post them together.)
Do not quote yourself.
Do not quote from Less Wrong itself, HPMoR, Eliezer Yudkowsky, or Robin Hanson. If you'd like to revive an old quote from one of those sources, please do so here.
No more than 5 quotes per person per monthly thread, please.
Provide sufficient information (URL, title, date, page number, etc.) to enable a reader to find the place where you read the quote, or its original source if available. Do not quote with only a name.

Germany’s plans in the event of a two front war [WW I] were the results of years of study on the part of great soldiers, the German General Staff. That those plans failed was not due to any unsoundness on the part of the plans, but rather due to the fact that the plans could not be carried out by the field armies.

An official Army War College publication, 1923

While reverse stupidity isn't intelligence, learning how others rationalize failure can help us recognize our own mistakes.

Edited to reflect hydkyll's comment.

How do you know it's a German Army War College publication? Reasons for my doubt:

"Ellis Bata" doesn't sound at all like a German name.
There was no War College in Germany in 1923. There were some remains of the Prussian Military Academy, but the Treaty of Versailles forbid work being done there. The academy wasn't reactivated until 1935.
The academy in Prussia isn't usually called "Army War College". However, there are such academies in Japan, India and the US.

7Shmi12y

This is a common failure mode, where the risk analysis is ignored completely. Falling in love with a perfect plan happens all the time in industry. Premortem analysis was not a thing back then, and is exceedingly rare still.

-1ChristianKl12y

The context in with the sentence stands is that around that time there was the believe that the Germany army counted on being supported by other German institutions and those institutions didn't support the army but failed the army. This is commonly known as the stab-in-the-back myth. "Myth" as the winners of WWII wrote our history books. There nothing inherently irrational about that sentiment even though it might have been wrong. It's not about blaming the troops. If something seems so stupid that it doesn't make sense to you, it might be that the problem is on your own end.