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johnlawrenceaspden comments on Rationality Quotes October 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion

4 Post author: Tyrrell_McAllister 01 October 2014 11:02PM

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Comment author: johnlawrenceaspden 04 October 2014 12:11:31PM 2 points [-]

Upvoted for the firm prediction. Confidence level?

Comment author: shminux 04 October 2014 10:12:18PM 3 points [-]

I would say 90% or so.

Comment author: shminux 05 November 2014 05:52:50PM *  0 points [-]

My guess is that the total number of cases with the Dallas vector will be under a dozen or so, with <40% fatalities. I guess we'll see.

... And it looks like I was right, if unduly pessimistic. Total new cases: 2, total new fatalities: 0. I expected at least some of the patient 0's relatives to get infected, and I did not expect the hospital's protection measures to be so bad. It looks like the strain they got there is not particularly infectious, which saved their asses.

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