Using Bayes to dismiss fringe phenomena

It would be a powerful tool to be able to dismiss fringe phenomena, prior to empirical investigation, on firm epistemological ground.

Thus I have elaborated on the possibility of doing so using Bayes, and this is my result:

Using Bayes to dismiss fringe phenomena

What do you think of it?

It would be a powerful tool to be able to dismiss fringe phenomena, prior to empirical investigation, on firm epistemological ground.

Thus I have elaborated on the possibility of doing so using Bayes, and this is my result:

Using Bayes to dismiss fringe phenomena

What do you think of it?

That isn't an estimate of P(UAP). The following two propositions are very different:

"There are technologically advanced civilizations elsewhere in the universe."
"Sometimes things happen visibly in our skies that aren't adequately explained by anything uncontroversially known to be real."

The first of these can be true without the second -- maybe there are aliens but they never come here. (That was rather the point of the Fermi paradox.)

The second can be true without the first -- maybe people have actually seen angels, or time travellers from earth's future, or spontaneous rips in the fabric of spacetime.

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Using Bayes to dismiss fringe phenomena

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Using Bayes to dismiss fringe phenomena

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