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philh comments on Using Bayes to dismiss fringe phenomena - Less Wrong Discussion
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I'm afraid I can't tell which direction you think I'm confused in. That example was intended to be an instance of UO1 for which P(UO1|UAP) > P(UO1|¬UAP), and that still seems true to me, even if P(UO1|UAP) is still low.
(I'm taking UAP to be something like "Earth is sometimes visited by aliens".)