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loldrup comments on Using Bayes to dismiss fringe phenomena - Less Wrong Discussion
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As a prequel to wiring my article, I looked into studies of UAPs. None of these studies concluded that all investigated UAP's turns out to be either known phenomena, or solely unidentifiable due to insufficient observation data. All studies show that a minor percentage of UAPs resist identification (between 5 and 20 percent).
Thus we cannot say that we currently have a scientific understanding of all aerial phenomena.
When this is combined with Fermi's paradox, how come we don't conclude that we should study them some more?
If there's any inaccuracy in the reporting, any mundane event can "resist identification". Eyewitnesses are not as accurate as most people think they are.
And while you claim that ones that have insufficient observation data were excluded, I'll believe it when I see a study, because that can mean a lot of things. (If there is enough information to rule out causes X and Y, but not Z or A, is that 'insufficient observation data'? What if they ruled out all sorts of causes but didn't rule out the possibility of, say, a hoax?)
I applaud looking at the studies. I included references to 7 studies and 4 case collections (including one collection solely of radar backed observations) in the References section of my article:
http://myinnerouterworldsimulator.neocities.org/index.html
P(A | B) is not equal to 1 - p(A | not B). You are thinking p(A | B) = 1 - p(not A | B). Example:
p(A=0,B=0) = 0.1, p(A=0,B=1) = 0.2, p(A=1,B=0) = 0.3, p(A=1,B=1) = 0.4.
p(A=0 | B=0) = p(A=0,B=0) / ( p(A=1,B=0) + p(A=0,B=0) ) = 0.1 / (0.3+0.1) = 0.1/0.4 = 1/4
p(A=0 | B=1) = p(A=0,B=1) / ( p(A=0,B=1) + p(A=1,B=1) ) = 0.2 / (0.2+0.4) = 0.2/0.6 = 2/6 = 1/3
1/4 is not 1 - 1/3.
Someone else pointed this out already, are you updating on basic math errors?
I am aware of the error and will correct it - it's on my todo list :)
[EDIT] fixed! (hopefully!)
http://myinnerouterworldsimulator.neocities.org/
Hint: what happened to UFO sightings once everyone started to carry a high-resolution camera (in a smartphone) with them at all times?
Did you investigate what happened?
What happened is that UFO sightings basically disappeared. Turns out it's much harder to talk about seeing UFOs when you can't answer the question "So, why didn't you take a picture with your phone?"
references?
[edit]: This graph shows the frequency of reported UFO sightings inn Canada over the last 25 years. There is a steady increase in sightings over the years:
http://www.canadianuforeport.com/survey/images/ttlreports2013.gif
The graph originates from this survey: http://survey.canadianuforeport.com/
conducted by the Canadian astronomer Chris A. Rutkowski and non-astronomer Geoff Dittman
Hmm, interesting. Looks like I was wrong.