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loldrup comments on Using Bayes to dismiss fringe phenomena - Less Wrong Discussion
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I applaud looking at the studies. I included references to 7 studies and 4 case collections (including one collection solely of radar backed observations) in the References section of my article:
http://myinnerouterworldsimulator.neocities.org/index.html
P(A | B) is not equal to 1 - p(A | not B). You are thinking p(A | B) = 1 - p(not A | B). Example:
p(A=0,B=0) = 0.1, p(A=0,B=1) = 0.2, p(A=1,B=0) = 0.3, p(A=1,B=1) = 0.4.
p(A=0 | B=0) = p(A=0,B=0) / ( p(A=1,B=0) + p(A=0,B=0) ) = 0.1 / (0.3+0.1) = 0.1/0.4 = 1/4
p(A=0 | B=1) = p(A=0,B=1) / ( p(A=0,B=1) + p(A=1,B=1) ) = 0.2 / (0.2+0.4) = 0.2/0.6 = 2/6 = 1/3
1/4 is not 1 - 1/3.
Someone else pointed this out already, are you updating on basic math errors?
I am aware of the error and will correct it - it's on my todo list :)
[EDIT] fixed! (hopefully!)
http://myinnerouterworldsimulator.neocities.org/