What if we have n observations where P( observation | ~UAP ) through investigation has been found to be 0 and, while hard to determine, P( observation | UAP ) is reasonably said to be strictly greater than 0.
Then P(UAP) will go towards 1, monotonously, as the number of observations increases, right?
What if we have n observations where P( observation | ~UAP ) through investigation has been found to be 0
Um, I don't think you understand what it means for P( observation | ~UAP ) to equal 0. If P( observation | ~UAP ) were really 0, then a single such observation would be enough to comclude the P(UAP) is 1.
It would be a powerful tool to be able to dismiss fringe phenomena, prior to empirical investigation, on firm epistemological ground.
Thus I have elaborated on the possibility of doing so using Bayes, and this is my result:
Using Bayes to dismiss fringe phenomena
What do you think of it?