So how should one interpret findings like this: "We investigated n observations and out of these there were k observations which had sufficient observation data to rule out all known aerial phenomena as being the cause".
If I take that statement at face value it means the observations were caused by some unknown phenomenon. Therefore, unknown phenomena of this type exist.
It would be a powerful tool to be able to dismiss fringe phenomena, prior to empirical investigation, on firm epistemological ground.
Thus I have elaborated on the possibility of doing so using Bayes, and this is my result:
Using Bayes to dismiss fringe phenomena
What do you think of it?