chaosmage comments on Contrarian LW views and their economic implications - Less Wrong Discussion
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These feel like stating the obvious, but maybe outside LW they wouldn't:
Maybe if you make a detailed scenario study of a world where all of these are true, you can find more indirect opportunities. All those drones should create a booming market for ultra-low power radar devices, for example. But that's hardly an LW specific idea. I think rationality mostly helps you reduce uncertainty about probabilities, but not necessarily into any particular direction. I suspect its main value might be that with greater certainty about how things that haven't happened yet will eventually turn out, you can more confidently think another step ahead and take opportunities that other people aren't sure will even arise.
Personally, I expect this "market" to remain irrational for longer than I expect anyone who bets against it to remain solvent.
It's hard to short universities :-)
I expect the market to bifurcate with the top tier maintaining its ability to commandeer outrageous prices, but the bottom tier either reinventing itself or going bust. Harvard is fine, a fifth-tier law school in South Dakota is in deep trouble.
You can short this one.
My first reaction on looking at the plot on the right, before reading the labels on the x axis, was ‘it looks like the impending doom is probably already priced in’.
These are very good suggestions; thank you for making them.
Is this a LW consensus? I know Thiel believes it, but if you follow a Caplan-style signalling model it's not clear we won't end up in a Peacock like race for more and more education.
There very little real consensus on LW. On most subject you do have a few people who are contrarian on LW. On the other hand many people on LW think that's the case.