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Larks comments on Contrarian LW views and their economic implications - Less Wrong Discussion

16 Post author: Larks 08 October 2014 11:48PM

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Comment author: Larks 10 October 2014 12:52:36AM 15 points [-]

My initial reaction was

"Unfortunately I think this is too far away to have much impact on NPVs now. Say it takes 5 years to develop the technology, and 20 years for early adopters to mature and enter the workforce. Suppose the rate of RGDP growth increases from 2.5% -> 10%, and we use a discount rate of 8%. I don't think you'll get much movement in NPV"

But then I actually worked it out in excel and the NPV triples. So thank you for the good suggestion!

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