gwern comments on Contrarian LW views and their economic implications - Less Wrong Discussion
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (126)
I don't believe that, and you lay out exactly why one should not believe this claim for an instant: you seriously think that in the the $2.4 trillion+ hedge fund industry - stuffed full of the smartest hungriest slimiest most ambitious money-hungry people, men and women who would sell their own grandfather if that would provide collateral for a juicy short, who would encourage their employees to break the law and throw them to the wolves if they get caught, who are worse friends than sharks because at least sharks' bellies can get full - that this entire industry would uniformly pass up almost doubling their return through a dead-simple legal strategy which would be discovered by their machine-learning algorithms even if they were blind to it - out of sexism? (How many Wall Street traders even know the gender of the CEOs whose associated hieroglyphics flash across their screens?) I have to say, you seem to have a much higher opinion of the moral principles of Wall Street than I do.
Having established that you are making an extraordinary claim which requires extraordinary evidence, let's take a look at your evidence.
A link to a piece whose opening centerpiece is link to an informal analysis ('Source: interactive data') in Fortune magazine in July 2014, which mention that there are now 27 female CEOs in the Fortune 1000 and that 'during their tenure' they had returns of 103% vs 70%. Problems with your claim I can spot just from the Fortune writeup (although calling an infographic a writeup is a bit generous):
Academic papers regularly try to find and show violations of EMH, but the more careful a paper is, the smaller the violations become, so they typically find only small ones and are often still false positives due to any one of the reasons I give above and there are far more ways to go wrong than that. A full-blown paper which takes countermeasures against all the problems I mention may have begun to earn some reasonable probability of being correct. It's a hard topic with many traps for the unwary, and some listoids or graphicles isn't going to cut the mustard. One can safely predict that any research showing excess returns to female CEOs will either turn in meaninglessly small effects which could be due to minor methodological issues or the effect will quickly shrink to zero when tested out of sample and especially after the paper is published... (I particularly like the bogus results caused by the database company providing the data retroactively editing the database to remove low-performers. Which is relevant here, now that I think about it.)
And why could English companies pay so much to workers? Because of high productivity. Maybe you should go reread Clark's papers. Not that one can attribute the IR to simply 'high wages', which is a consequence, not a cause...