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Toggle comments on 2014 Less Wrong Census/Survey - Call For Critiques/Questions - Less Wrong Discussion

18 Post author: Yvain 11 October 2014 06:39AM

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Comment author: Toggle 11 October 2014 08:05:29AM 2 points [-]

P(God)

This question bugged me from last year's survey, but I'm not sure if my objections are valid. Consider a subset of this question: "What is the probability that Bayesian mathematical reasoning was created by a supranatural entity?" It seems... outside the domain, a little bit? Like a question, "What is the probability that Bayesian mathematics is true?"- what would it mean for this to be false? Which is to say, I don't know whether probability estimates are capable of a certain degree of recursive self-analysis, and asking about the origins of Bayesianism may be in that class.