Yeah, I'd expect some pretty serious regression to the mean, or more accurately to slightly above the mean, going on with the group-of-adults method. People of low intelligence hang out with other people of low intelligence and probably have a slightly inflated opinion of their relative capabilities; likewise for people of high intelligence. But people outside your social circle are totally invisible.
At least, assuming people actually use the group-of-adults method, which I don't really expect them to.
At least, assuming people actually use the group-of-adults method, which I don't really expect them to.
That is, you would expect people to say "well, I want my IQ to be 145, so let's calculate the percentile for that, and then use that percentile to calculate the group size"? Or that they'd just leave the question blank?
It's that time of year again. Actually, a little earlier than that time of year, but I'm pushing it ahead a little to match when Ozy and I expect to have more free time to process the results.
The first draft of the 2014 Less Wrong Census/Survey is complete (see 2013 results here) .
You can see the survey below if you promise not to try to take the survey because it's not done yet and this is just an example!
2014 Less Wrong Census/Survey Draft
I want two things from you.
First, please critique this draft (it's much the same as last year's). Tell me if any questions are unclear, misleading, offensive, confusing, or stupid. Tell me if the survey is so unbearably long that you would never possibly take it. Tell me if anything needs to be rephrased.
Second, I am willing to include any question you want in the Super Extra Bonus Questions section, as long as it is not offensive, super-long-and-involved, or really dumb. Please post any questions you want there. Please be specific - not "Ask something about taxes" but give the exact question you want me to ask as well as all answer choices.
Try not to add more than a few questions per person, unless you're sure yours are really interesting. Please also don't add any questions that aren't very easily sort-able by a computer program like SPSS unless you can commit to sorting the answers yourself.
I will probably post the survey to Main and officially open it for responses sometime early next week.