I've actually been trying to actually invoke something like this, at some point after the singularity I plan to go into a simulation that starts out with my life pre-singularity, then awesome/impossible adventures start. There's kludges involved in getting it to seem like it has any hope of working, because my expected reason for why future-me will want to do this is that adventures are more fun if you think they're real (I'd prefer this to simple wireheading, and probably also to reality) and that makes the fact that I'm planning this now evidence against it. I don't have much input to make on the actual question, just declaring my interest in it.
For some time I've been pondering on a certain scenario, which I'll describe shortly. I hope you may help me find a satisfactory answer or at very least be as perplexed by this probabilistic question as me. Feel free to assign any reasonable a priori probabilities as you like. Here's the problem:
It's cold cold winter. Radiators are hardly working, but it's not why you're sitting so anxiously in your chair. The real reason is that tomorrow is your assigned upload (and damn, it's just one in million chance you're not gonna get it) and you just can't wait to leave your corporality behind. "Oh, I'm so sick of having a body, especially now. I'm freezing!" you think to yourself, "I wish I were already uploaded and could just pop myself off to a tropical island."
And now it strikes you. It's a weird solution, but it feels so appealing. You make a solemn oath (you'd say one in million chance you'd break it), that soon after upload you will simulate this exact moment thousand times simultaneously and when the clock strikes 11 AM, you're gonna be transposed to a Hawaiian beach, with a fancy drink in your hand.
It's 10:59 on a clock. What's the probability that you'd be in a tropical paradise in one minute?
And to make things more paradoxical: What would be said probability, if you wouldn't have made such an oath - just seconds ago?