Anthropic measure (magic reality fluid) measures what the reality is - it's like how an outside observer would see things. Anthropic measure is more properly possessed by states of the universe than by individual instances of you.
It doesn't look like a helpful notion and seems very tautological. How do I observe this anthropic measure - how can I make any guesses about what the outside observer would see?
Even though you can make yourself expect (probability) to see a beach soon, it doesn't change the fact that you actually still have to sit through the cold (anthropic measure).
Continuing - how do I know I'd still have to sit through the cold? Maybe I am in my simulated past - in hypothetical scenario it's a very down-to-earth assumption.
Sorry, but above doesn't clarify anything for me. I may accept that the concept of probability is out of the scope here, that bayesianism doesn't work for guessing whether one is or isn't in a certain simulation, but I don't know if that's what you meant.
How do I observe this anthropic measure - how can I make any guesses about what the outside observer would see?
The same way you'd make such guesses normally - observe the world, build an implicit model, make interpretations etc. "How" is not really an additional problem, so perhaps you'd like examples and motivation.
Suppose that I flip a quantum coin, and if it lands heads I give you cake and tails I don't - you expect to get cake with 50% probability. Similarly, if you start with 1 unit of anthropic measure, it gets split between cake and no-...
For some time I've been pondering on a certain scenario, which I'll describe shortly. I hope you may help me find a satisfactory answer or at very least be as perplexed by this probabilistic question as me. Feel free to assign any reasonable a priori probabilities as you like. Here's the problem:
It's cold cold winter. Radiators are hardly working, but it's not why you're sitting so anxiously in your chair. The real reason is that tomorrow is your assigned upload (and damn, it's just one in million chance you're not gonna get it) and you just can't wait to leave your corporality behind. "Oh, I'm so sick of having a body, especially now. I'm freezing!" you think to yourself, "I wish I were already uploaded and could just pop myself off to a tropical island."
And now it strikes you. It's a weird solution, but it feels so appealing. You make a solemn oath (you'd say one in million chance you'd break it), that soon after upload you will simulate this exact moment thousand times simultaneously and when the clock strikes 11 AM, you're gonna be transposed to a Hawaiian beach, with a fancy drink in your hand.
It's 10:59 on a clock. What's the probability that you'd be in a tropical paradise in one minute?
And to make things more paradoxical: What would be said probability, if you wouldn't have made such an oath - just seconds ago?