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Punoxysm comments on Open thread, Oct. 13 - Oct. 19, 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion
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I don't think I can prove that I'm not coming at it from a hindsight biased perspective.
But I think I can say confidently that today's technology is at least a qualitative leap away from Strong let alone FOOM AI. To make that more clear, I think no currently existing academic, industrial or personal project will achieve Strong AI or FOOM. Concretely:
In the next 2 years the chance of Strong AI and/or FOOM AI being developed is no more than 0.2%
So that's a 2 year period where I estimate the chance of Strong AI or FOOM as substantially less than EY is saying we should have estimated Eurisko's risk of FOOM only in retrospect.