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Capla comments on What math is essential to the art of rationality? - Less Wrong Discussion
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So other than learning the formula, how do you suggest that we learn to apply it, other than actually applying over and over, until one stops getting problems wrong? It seems that it's just a function of practice.
I don't have a good answer to that question.
There are studies of mental biases that suggest that a lot of people who can manage to apply the formula to textbook problem fails to apply it when you give them a political scenario. Most people fail to think clearly and motivated reasoning if the question becomes meaningful for them.
As far as I understand CFAR tries to teach bayes theorem in a way that people will actually use it. I however neither know their exact curriculum nor know the success rate of their approach.