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dhasenan comments on What false beliefs have you held and why were you wrong? - Less Wrong Discussion

28 Post author: Punoxysm 16 October 2014 05:58PM

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Comment author: [deleted] 16 October 2014 08:08:40PM *  18 points [-]

False belief: That in the U.S. the death penalty was cheaper than life in prison.

Believing this wasn't rational. I didn't take such basic steps as looking up the costs surrounding executions or life imprisonment. Executions get much more appeals, trials and legal attention.

False belief: That in the U.S. deaths by firearm are generally homicides, not suicides.

Believing this also wasn't rational. I didn't take such basic steps as looking up available death statistics.

Actually, looking through things potentially on the list for me, a lot of them seem to have the following general form:

1: Something is asserted.

2: I think: 'Yeah, that sounds plausible.'

3: I don't bother to look up any data about it, I just move myself to the believe column.

4: Later, someone else reports data about it.

5: I'm surprised that my earlier beliefs were wrong.

I've since became more skeptical of believing things based on just assertions, (I can even recall a recent instance where an assertion popped up on TV which my wife believed, but which I was skeptical of and which upon looking it up we found data didn't support it and that they were massively overstating their case)

But I can definitely recall beliefs that I have had in the past that were fundamentally just assertion based and the followed the above pattern.

Comment author: [deleted] 18 October 2014 01:35:32AM 3 points [-]

False belief: That in the U.S. deaths by firearm are generally homicides, not suicides.

I would have expected accidents to lead that metric. A quick check of the actual data says it's negligible. Time to rescind my support for gun lock laws (except perhaps to reduce the likelihood that people purchase guns in the first place).