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satt comments on What false beliefs have you held and why were you wrong? - Less Wrong Discussion

28 Post author: Punoxysm 16 October 2014 05:58PM

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Comment author: satt 18 October 2014 02:21:43PM *  16 points [-]

correlation between economic freedom and economic growth was much stronger than it is

Here is a list of countries ranked by economic freedom:

http://www.heritage.org/index/

The top 10 are all very prosperous countries. In particular, [...]

Princess_Stargirl is talking about the correlation with economic growth, which is not going to be the same as the correlation with economic prosperity. This looks like a confusion of a variable with its rate of change.

It is informative to see what happens if I (1) correct this by correlating the economic freedom index with GDP growth, and (2) use as big a sample as is available instead of focusing on particular cases. I copied the freedom ratings from that Heritage web page and real GDP growth rates ("estimates are for the year 2013 unless otherwise indicated") from Wikipedia. The correlation between the freedom index and real GDP growth turns out to be negative: the Pearson correlation coefficient is -0.19 and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (which allows for nonlinearity) is -0.35. Plotting the data and a loess curve with R's default settings:

2013 real GDP growth against IEF

Some outliers are evident. Perhaps they're disproportionately skewing the freedom-growth correlation? I take out North Korea (the far left point) and the two lowest points, Cyprus and Central African Republic:

2013 real GDP growth against IEF, outliers removed

and in fact the freedom-growth correlation sinks further, to -0.38 (Spearman's rank) or -0.30 (Pearson). The main mass of nations hovers around the part of the loess curve which slopes downward.

At this point in time, the correlation between the Heritage Foundation's index of economic freedom and economic growth is unambiguously negative. I suspect this is because being a poor country is associated with low economic freedom but high catch-up growth. What happens if I correlate the freedom index with annualized GDP growth over a longer period, 1990-2007, for which catch-up growth is probably less important?

1990-2007 real GDP growth against IEF

I now wind up with positive correlations (+0.25 for Spearman, +0.20 for Pearson). Now I throw out the outlying North Korea (the leftmost point), Zimbabwe (the bottommost), and Equatorial Guinea (the topmost).

1990-2007 real GDP growth against IEF, outliers removed

This has no meaningful effect on the correlations, which become +0.24 (Spearman) and +0.21 (Pearson). Overall, by switching from a more up-to-date growth statistic to a more long-term (and pre-Great Recession and mostly post-Soviet) statistic, I change the sign of the correlation between growth and the Heritage Foundation's assessment of economic freedom.

It's not immediately obvious to me which GDP growth statistic is more appropriate. 2013 growth has the advantages of being more up-to-date and better matching when the Index of Economic Freedom was calculated, but is less representative of each country's long-term economic trajectory. 1990-2007 growth is more representative but also involves comparing 24-year-old data to a recent index; the proper thing to do here would be to use a similarly long-term average of the Index of Economic Freedom, but that's too much like real work.

There is also the question of how to operationalize "economic freedom", but this comment is long enough. I evade that problem here by simply taking the data tables suggested upthread as given, and after doing so the basic conclusion seems to be that the correlation between "economic freedom" and "economic growth" is modest, with its sign sensitive to how one operationalizes growth. (Check my work with my data file.)

[Edited 19/10 to change "Gunea" to "Guinea", and add "after doing so".]

Comment author: AspiringRationalist 20 October 2014 02:33:43AM 1 point [-]

At this point in time, the correlation between the Heritage Foundation's index of economic freedom and economic growth is unambiguously negative. I suspect this is because being a poor country is associated with low economic freedom but high catch-up growth.

To test this hypothesis, I did a linear regression of overall score, each of the ten subscores and 2013 real GDP growth against the log of 2013 GDP per capita (at parity). I then took the correlation between the residual of 2013 real GDP growth and the residual for each of the scores. Here are the results: overall score -0.04 property rights -0.15 freedom from corruption -0.11 fiscal freedom 0.25 government spending 0.18 business freedom -0.03 labor freedom 0.05 monetary freedom -0.12 trade freedom 0.01 investment freedom -0.18 financial freedom -0.09

These results were approximately opposite of what I expected (I expected minimal correlation for fiscal freedom and government spending and generally positive correlations for everything else). While I'm only somewhat surprised by the government spending and fiscal freedom results, I find the others very confusing. Does anyone have any idea what might be going on?

Comment author: satt 23 October 2014 01:22:24AM 0 points [-]

At this point in time, the correlation between the Heritage Foundation's index of economic freedom and economic growth is unambiguously negative. I suspect this is because being a poor country is associated with low economic freedom but high catch-up growth.

To test this hypothesis, I did a linear regression of overall score, each of the ten subscores and 2013 real GDP growth against the log of 2013 GDP per capita (at parity). I then took the correlation between the residual of 2013 real GDP growth and the residual for each of the scores.

The analysis I'd do would be simpler. Compute the correlation of log GDP per capita with the freedom index (or its subscales); if I'm right it should be substantially positive. Then correlate log GDP per capita with GDP growth; the result should be substantially negative. Taking correlations of residuals addresses the different question of whether unusually high growth for a country's income level correlates with unusually high freedom indices for a country's income level.

Comment author: AspiringRationalist 25 October 2014 01:03:45AM *  1 point [-]

I did the simpler analysis first and all the correlations between log GDP per capita and all the economic freedom index subscores were pretty negative (as was the correlation between log GDP per capita and GDP growth). Log GDP per capita was positively correlated with economic freedom subscores.

Edit: clarity

Comment author: satt 25 October 2014 05:08:57PM 0 points [-]

Thanks. A negative correlation between log GDP per capita and the freedom index surprises me; that falsifies my "poor country" confounder speculation.

Comment author: AspiringRationalist 26 October 2014 06:33:03PM 0 points [-]

The comment above yours was not very clear. I have edited it for clarity. There is in fact a positive correlation between the economic freedom index and log GDP per capita.

Comment author: satt 27 October 2014 05:00:36AM 0 points [-]

I'm more confused now. The parent comment says the EF index correlates positively with log GDP per capita, while the edited comment says the EF index subscores correlate both negatively and positively with log GDP per capita. I don't understand how that can all be true simultaneously...

Comment author: AspiringRationalist 20 October 2014 01:54:04AM 1 point [-]

Your charts graph 1990-2007 economic growth as a function of 2014 economic freedom, 1990 economic freedom, so assuming that correlation is causation here (almost always a dubious assumption), this would indicate that economic growth leads to economic freedom, not the other way around.

Comment author: Azathoth123 20 October 2014 04:24:38AM 1 point [-]

Is 1990 economic freedom data available?

Comment author: AspiringRationalist 21 October 2014 03:21:42AM 0 points [-]

My bad. The oldest data is from 1995.