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Pfft comments on What false beliefs have you held and why were you wrong? - Less Wrong Discussion

28 Post author: Punoxysm 16 October 2014 05:58PM

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Comment author: Pfft 18 October 2014 04:38:43PM *  2 points [-]

Oh, that's a good example too for the main thread! I don't remember exactly when I learned that the "eccentric orbit" theory of seasons was wrong (some time around grade 8), but remember how it happened---someone claimed that seasons in South America are flipped from the Northern Hemisphere, and I thought "that's obviously wrong!!", but asking around a bit other people confirmed it.

I guess this is also very similar to Folk Theories of Heat Control---you tend to end up with the simplest model which explains all relevant observations. As long as you only deal with one hemisphere, the eccentric orbit theory mostly works, and it's much easier to remember.

Comment author: Azathoth123 18 October 2014 05:19:36PM 3 points [-]

I wonder what this says about how seriously we should take Occam's razor.

Comment author: 27chaos 19 October 2014 06:37:51PM 1 point [-]

I think Occam's razor is best used when you have Model A and Model B, where Model B is identical to Model A except it has one extra idea in it. Comparing different models or different types of models through one's intuitions about simplicity alone is generally a bad idea.