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KatjaGrace comments on Superintelligence 6: Intelligence explosion kinetics - Less Wrong Discussion
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If there was no hardware overhang initially, however, strong incentives would exist for people, along with whatever software tools they have, to optimize the system so that it runs faster, and on less hardware.
If development follows the pattern of previous AI systems, chances are they will succeed. Additional efficiencies can always be wrung out of prototype software systems.
Therefore, if there is no hardware overhang initially, one probably will materialize fairly shortly through software optimization which includes human engineers in the process.
In the past, such processes have delivered x1000 increases.
If the initial system does not find a hardware overhang, it seems unclear to me that a 1000x less expensive system necessarily will. For any system which doesn't have a hardware overhang, there is another 1000x less efficient that also doesn't.