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KatjaGrace comments on Superintelligence 6: Intelligence explosion kinetics - Less Wrong Discussion
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What empirical evidence could you look at to better predict the future winner of the Foom Debate? (for those who looked at it above)
One way you could frame a large disagreement in it is as whether there are likely to be simple insights that can 'put the last puzzle piece' in a system (as Bostrom suggest), or massively improve a system in one go, rather than via a lot of smaller insights. This seems like a thing where we should be able to get heaps of evidence from our past experiences with insights and technological progress.