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pcm comments on Superintelligence 9: The orthogonality of intelligence and goals - Less Wrong Discussion
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The main point of the orthogonality thesis is that we can't rely on intelligence to produce the morality we want. So saying that there's a 50% chance of the thesis being correct ought to cause us to act much like we would act if it were proven, whereas certainty that it is false would imply something very different.