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Gunnar_Zarncke comments on Four things every community should do - Less Wrong Discussion

11 Post author: Gunnar_Zarncke 20 October 2014 05:24PM

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Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 21 October 2014 08:09:40AM 0 points [-]

Depends on what connotations of relgion you mean. But ensuring ulturally that the scientific process doesn't stop - and provides value by forming a religion-like commuity around it does sound like a viable way.

Reminds me of the approach proposed for warning of radioactive waste dumps for 10000 years:

Bastide and Fabbri came to the conclusion that the most durable thing that humanity has ever made is culture: religion, folklore, belief systems. They may morph over time, but an essential message can get pulled through over millennia.

Comment author: chaosmage 21 October 2014 07:05:52PM 0 points [-]

Not a good analogy. Something that works and reliably gives its users comparative advantage (such as science) shouldn't need a mechanism to keep alive an "essential message". Institutions to teach it, and to keep it clean, yes: but those are universities, not religions.

And universities, once established, also tend to be extremely durable. They just haven't been around for thousands of years yet. But while they have, many more newly-founded religions than universities have died.

Comment author: ruelian 22 October 2014 10:17:58PM 2 points [-]

Universities are not a good example of the institutions he was talking about. Durability isn't the only important factor. One of the main strengths of religious institutions is their sheer pervasiveness; by inserting itself into every facet of life, religion ensures that its disciples can't stray too far from the path without being reminded of it. Universities, sadly, are not capable of this level of involvement in the lives of communities or individuals.

In this case, rationality should seek to emulate religion by creating institutions and thus a lifestyle that makes its ideas pervasive. For example, if you could attend weekly lectures at your local "rationality church" or have those better at the art of rationality available to guide you the way priests guide Christians, becoming and staying a rationalist would be much easier and thus more accessible to the populace. This already sort of happens through the internet and meetups, but what religion has is a proven formula that builds communities around ideas, and we can definitely learn from it.

Comment author: Lumifer 23 October 2014 01:23:55AM 0 points [-]

One of the main strengths of religious institutions is their sheer pervasiveness; by inserting itself into every facet of life, religion ensures that its disciples can't stray too far from the path without being reminded of it.

That's called totalitarianism, by the way. Not many people consider it to be a good thing.

Comment author: ruelian 23 October 2014 01:57:42PM 0 points [-]

Not necessarily. It's totalitarianism if said institutions do the ensuring through force, and without the consent of the disciples. However, by choosing to belong to a religious community, people choose to have institutions and members of the community remind them of the religious values.

Comment author: Lumifer 23 October 2014 02:51:13PM 0 points [-]

The mark of totalitarianism is not force, but rather complete control over all aspects of life.

"He loved Big Brother".

Comment author: ruelian 23 October 2014 02:56:16PM 0 points [-]

I made no mention of control. Simply being present in all aspects of life is not the same as having control over all aspects of life. For example, if you live in a western society it's extremely probable that marketing and advertising are present in many aspects of your life, but I don't think either of us would say that the simple fact of their presence gives the marketers control over those aspects of your life.

Comment author: Lumifer 23 October 2014 03:18:24PM 0 points [-]

Well, yes, but I think that in practice living within a religious community imposes a lot of pressure to conform to the religious norms. Some of that pressure is social (from not being invited to the right cocktail parties to outright shunning) and some can be direct and violent. I recall that the haredim are not above throwing stones at cars on a Saturday...

Comment author: ruelian 23 October 2014 03:24:26PM 0 points [-]

I agree that this is the case in some religious communities, and that this is not necessarily the direction a rationalist community should go. (On the other hand, I have a hard time agreeing with the proposition that social pressure in favor of rationality is a bad thing, but I have yet to reach a definite conclusion on the subject.) However, I happen to be familiar with several religious communities where direct and violent pressure to conform is not the case, and it is those communities I wish to emulate.

Comment author: Lumifer 23 October 2014 03:38:03PM -1 points [-]

I feel that the cohesiveness of a community and its effectiveness at maintaining its norms is directly and strongly correlated to the disincentives that it provides for deviating from these norms. Just presence of symbols is not enough.

Of course things like self-selection and evaporative cooling are major factors as well.

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 21 October 2014 07:42:01PM *  1 point [-]

I'm not sure that science 'itself' (i.e. without cultural aspects shared with religion) "reliably gives its users comparative advantage". The advantage for the individual is quite small - if not negative in some cases. It is only by the society embracing science that it gains the society at large a large advantage.

Now that we have science we individuals may find that 'doing' science is to our individual disadvatage and abstain from it (freerider-wise).

If on the other hand you see science as a set of cultural rules and customs - and your university example points in that direction - then science already has lots in common with religion. Why not build on that?

Comment author: chaosmage 22 October 2014 10:03:17AM 1 point [-]

I'm not talking about benefits to individuals as much as benefits to companies and societies. I believe that of two otherwise very similar companies and societies, if one does R&D and the other doesn't, the one that does will very reliably outcompete the other in the long term.

I'm all for developing non-superstitious alternatives to religion, and I do think community-building is a vital part of that. But to be inside that reference class must give rise to many associations, not all of which are fortunate. In particular, it renders the "creed" a matter of subjective belief and feeling. I wouldn't want the Sequences to be seen that way. The creed your imagined community should center around would have to be something compatible with them, yet distinct from them. Humanism is one of the more obvious possibilities.

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 22 October 2014 01:01:11PM 0 points [-]

Free-riding can happen among societies too. It is quite possible that a society doing little R&D itself but applying R&D results from other societies outcompetes those. I hear this is happening in the form that some asian countries learn from the west without investing as much.

Comment author: chaosmage 22 October 2014 01:57:35PM 0 points [-]

Freerider societies actually outcompeting innovators? Name three.

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 22 October 2014 04:26:00PM 0 points [-]

I wouldn't call it freerider society but rather copy-cat societies but...

Japan did this at the end of the 19th century:

http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/2781050?uid=3737864&uid=2&uid=4&sid=21104386363121

And China did this until recently

http://www.techradar.com/news/computing-components/processors/arm-days-of-china-copying-western-tech-are-ending-1247241

I guess quite a few asian satellites e.g. Taiwan did/do this too.

Comment author: gwern 22 October 2014 04:49:49PM *  2 points [-]

I don't know if those examples show 'outcompeting'. The overall picture of various countries doesn't show late growers exceeding the absolute wealth of early growers (maybe one would predict this based on cultural/human-capital/institution theories?).

As far as Western industrialization went, the big players in roughly chronological order were the UK, Netherlands, France, USA, & Austria/Germany. It seems fair to call them the 'innovators', and you seem to have only East Asian countries in mind, so I'll look at just China/Taiwan/Korea (South, but not North)/Japan/Hong Kong (which I think is all of them) as 'imitators'.

Consider their wealth (GDP PPP per capita); in descending order it goes: United States (10), Hong Kong (10), Netherlands/Belgium (13/24), Austria/Germany (16/17), Taiwan (22), France (26), Japan (27), UK (28), South Korea (30), and 60 places way down the list is China (89).

How badly are they outcompeted? Well, South Korea & China beat none of them, Japan just barely edges out the UK (which we might attribute to socialist decay), Taiwan is past France & the UK but is pretty small, and Hong Kong is even more exceptional (tiny & UK-founded). In general, it seems to be better to be an 'innovator' than a (successful) 'imitator'.

If I drop Hong Kong as too tiny and exceptional, the permutations seem to be going in the direction of innovation being better too:

R> countries <- data.frame(PPP=c( 10, 10, 13, 24, 16, 17, 22, 26, 27, 28, 30, 89),
Innovator=c(TRUE, FALSE, TRUE, TRUE, TRUE, TRUE, FALSE, TRUE, FALSE, TRUE, FALSE, FALSE))
R> wilcox.test(PPP ~ Innovator, data=countries)
Wilcoxon rank sum test with continuity correction
data: PPP by Innovator
W = 24.5, p-value = 0.2903

At least, if the East Asians are 'outcompeting', it doesn't look like it's clearly happened yet.

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 22 October 2014 06:16:39PM 0 points [-]

I find it a very sensible move to go for numbers here, esp. GDP/capita, but I'm not sure that captures the outcompeting/freeriding that was meant.

Comment author: chaosmage 22 October 2014 05:13:27PM 0 points [-]

If you're talking about copycats reducing the distance they lag behind innovators, at a reduced cost relative to what the innovators invested into building that distance, those are good examples.

For outcompeting, no.

Comment author: Lumifer 22 October 2014 05:31:45PM *  2 points [-]

For outcompeting, no.

It's hard to do country comparisons because of all the confounders. But for particular industries, it's easy to find examples.

The Japanese automobile industry clearly outcompeted the US one during the late 80s and the 90s, for example. Or look at where all the semiconductors are produced.

This is not to say that being a copycat is better than being an innovator -- just that the first-mover advantage sometimes is significant and sometimes is not.

Comment author: ChristianKl 22 October 2014 05:51:53PM 0 points [-]

On what basis do you consider the Japanese automobile industry not engaging in research and innovation?

For the I can find Japan had in 1984 62k granted patents while the US had 67k Given that the US had roughly twice the population, Japan might have outcompeted the US because of more innovation.

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 22 October 2014 06:19:17PM 0 points [-]

Reducing the distance they lag behind by copy-catting is outcompeting - in the relative sense. Otherwise they wouldn't catch up but fall further behind. That they didn't start out at the same level could be considered more historical chance than missing ability.