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gwern comments on Anthropic signature: strange anti-correlations - Less Wrong Discussion

51 Post author: Stuart_Armstrong 21 October 2014 04:59PM

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Comment author: gwern 21 October 2014 07:15:09PM 8 points [-]

The effect is even clearer if we have a probabilistic relation between pandemics, recessions and extinction (something like: extinction risk proportional to product of recession size times pandemic size). Then we would see an anti-correlation rising smoothly with intensity.

So something like the plot of asteroid impact sizes vs time in "The Anthropic Shadow" where the upper-right corner is empty?

Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 21 October 2014 07:34:25PM 0 points [-]

Similar in that one quadrant is empty, otherwise a distinct effect.

Comment author: Arenamontanus 23 October 2014 12:50:01AM 2 points [-]

This is incidentally another way of explaining the effect. Consider the standard diagram of the joint probability density and how it relates to correlation. Now take a bite out of the upper right corner of big X and big Y events: unless the joint density started in a really strange shape this will tend to make the correlation negative.

Comment author: Sarunas 23 October 2014 07:08:44PM *  7 points [-]

This is known as Berkson's paradox and it is ubiquitous. A lot of people have written about it and its implications, e.g. Yvain (underlying reasons why anti-correlations arise are very similar).

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