= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
Azathoth123 comments on Non-standard politics - Less Wrong Discussion
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (231)
The modern world is different from the past in many ways, such as NATO, the UN, nukes, vast international trade, rapid communications, power moving away from the church and aristocracy, and horror at the vast death toll of the world wars. I couldn't imagine Canada invading the US if the Canadians suddenly developed an unstoppable superweapon, and even if the US became completely isolationist I doubt Germany would invade France again any time soon. The west has too much trade, too much communication, too much tourism to want to fight even if NATO, the UN, the EU all shut down.
On the other hand, the fact that the US gave Germany money for rebuilding in the immediate aftermath of WWII really is an unprecedented act of generosity.
If the US became completely isolationist, including pulling out all support from NATO and dismantling the nuclear umbrella, I'd predict the next Franco-German war in 20 years max (possibly sooner).
Edit: since it wasn't clear judging by the replies, I never said that the war would start with a German attack on France.
As a Frenchman with German friends, and family near the border, this seems outrageously stupid.
Why? There were Frenchman with German friends near the border before the two world wars as well.
I'm not saying that friendships would prevent a war, I'm saying that I know people on both sides of the border and that from both point of views the idea of war is ludicrous and unthinkable. The French don't hate the Germans, the Germans don't hate the French, and the kind of flag-waving gun-toting nationalism you'd get in the US or China or Russia is highly unfashionable.
Predicting Franco-German war on a French talk show would probably get you laughed off stage ...
Give them a decade or two under austerity, that will change.
Which what credence?
Why the heck should Germany want to wage war in the next 20 years on France?
Why should an isolationist US lead to a weaker EU instead of the EU coming more together?
Ehrr... France is a nuclear power. Wholly independently so - It isn't like the british deterrent which might get a lot more expensive without US support, the French nukes are French. Made in France, mounted on french rockets, in french submarines that are propelled by french reactors. "Has a firing solution for washington DC right along with the one for Moscow" is what I am saying. Nobody is invading them.
This seems very unlikely to me. Could you explain what you think would cause this war?
Probably the French getting annoyed at the real or perceived German takeover of their country through the banking system.