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Azathoth123 comments on Non-standard politics - Less Wrong Discussion
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As a Frenchman with German friends, and family near the border, this seems outrageously stupid.
Why? There were Frenchman with German friends near the border before the two world wars as well.
I'm not saying that friendships would prevent a war, I'm saying that I know people on both sides of the border and that from both point of views the idea of war is ludicrous and unthinkable. The French don't hate the Germans, the Germans don't hate the French, and the kind of flag-waving gun-toting nationalism you'd get in the US or China or Russia is highly unfashionable.
Predicting Franco-German war on a French talk show would probably get you laughed off stage ...
Give them a decade or two under austerity, that will change.