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RowanE comments on more on predicting agents - Less Wrong Discussion
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It's a trivial nitpick, but I feel it should be pointed out that there could be many reasons other than "the individual whose strategy worked is more intelligent" for one strategy to work better than another, especially in a single test.
If you test it multiple times in a variety of different circumstances, and one works better, then the person using it is more instrumentally rational.
Think of it like this: an intelligent being uses a variety of heuristics to figure out what to do. These heuristics need to be properly tuned to work well. It's not that intelligent people are more capable of tuning their heuristics. It's that tuning their heuristics is what makes them intelligent.