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Natha comments on Others' predictions of your performance are usually more accurate - Less Wrong Discussion

18 Post author: Natha 13 November 2014 02:17AM

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Comment author: Natha 13 November 2014 03:01:40AM *  1 point [-]

You're exactly right, sorry. I'll keep the picture because I think it suffices to illustrate the trend, but I'll update my description for clarity. Here are the other summary graphs for studies 1, 2, and 4

ETA: Strangely apropos this post, David Dunning is doing a Reddit AMA right now; I should go ask him why he and Kruger (1999) chose to report quartiles!