Personal experience can often be useful, but when reading your original comment I didn't get the impression you were doing a good job separating what you have learned from personal experience and what you're just guessing about. All of it is your least bad evidence, yes, but some of it is a lot worse than others. I think Mac did a good job highlighting some of your claims. What is your degree of confidence in each one individually? How do I compare the likely accuracy of claim 1 vs. claim 10?