The issue is, my reasoning is usually very motivated. My modus operandi is to feel a strong sense of compassion to help groups of people whose life sucks and simply not accept "don't know" for an answer. Rather, I go for the least badly evidenced helpful hypothesis and explore it. These are the least badly evidenced ones.

You don't help people by deluding yourself and have an inaccurate map of reality. Understanding a system in depth is very useful if you want to change it.