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XiXiDu comments on Musk on AGI Timeframes - Less Wrong Discussion
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I wonder what would have been Musk's reaction had he witnessed Eurisko winning the United States Traveller TCS national championship in 1981 and 1982. Or if he had witnessed Schmidhuber's universal search algorithm solving Towers of Hanoi on a desktop computer in 2005.
I distinctly recall reading SIAI documents from ~2000 claiming they had until between 2005 and 2010...
Also, in a 2002 interview, Eliezer said that "a few years back" before the interview his actual guess at when the singularity would occur was between 2008 and 2015, but he would say that it would occur between 2005 and 2020 in order to give a conservative estimate.
Eliezer's "The Plan to Singularity" and "Staring into the Singularity" (last updated in 2000 and 2001, respectively) contain numerous references to passive singularity prediction dates and interventionist singularity target dates.