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KatjaGrace comments on Superintelligence 11: The treacherous turn - Less Wrong Discussion
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What did you find most unconvincing?
To play the treacherous turn gambit, the AI needs to get strong at faking weakness faster than it gets strong at everything else. What are the chances of that?
I hear you and kind of agree. On the other hand, when a 3-year old lies, sometimes they to pull it off.
I feel like the chances of a treacherous turn happening with no warning at all are unlikely unless the intelligence rise is very rapid. However, it also seems that past a certain point, the treachery will be very hard to detect. Risk may not be so much that there are no warning signs, but that the warning signs are ignored.