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CalmNearEnd comments on Bayes Academy: Development report 1 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (27)
This idea seems amazing.
This is how envisioned the beginning should be:
???: “Hey there.”
Eep! Someone is talking to me! Is he another applicant, or a staff member? Based on my own school there were roughly 30 students in a classroom to the one teacher. So 30 to 1. Adding in other staff members such as janitors, secretaries, and the principal I'll say to 1 staff member to 24 students to makes the math nice. That makes my prior a one in twenty five chance for it to be a staff member before I turn around.
I’m guessing that applicant would look a lot younger than staff members! So, to find that out… I should look at him! I'll need to estimate how many students look old enough to be teachers and how many staff members look young enough to be students and I can update accordingly.
Or is this way too complex to start with?
Since in the immediately next part the protagonist assigns a 50% chance on a monster being behind her back (because she doesn't know for sure either way), I'm guessing that the concept of having reasonable priors is one which is supposed to get gradually introduced. This early on, the character's estimates seem to be tending to go from a false 50% to either a false 0/% or a false 100%.
So, yeah, what you suggest is probably too complex to start with.
You're absolutely correct.