it requires the AI to make its precommitment before knowing what your commitment was.
Perhaps I'm just missing the point, but I'm not sure that the AIs can do that in the first place. In acausal trade, you don't really have these kinds of info issues. You're dealing with measures of agents that either do or don't have some logical properties, like taking one box, or putting money in the box iff you one-box. AIUI, our rejection of Roko's basilisk doesn't just rest on refusing to be blackmailed; we can also reasonably know that since we refuse, it doesn't get built in the first place.
we can also reasonably know that since we refuse, it doesn't get built in the first place.
The key is that the AI precommits to building it whether we refuse or not.
If we actually do refuse, this precommitment ends up being bad for it, since it builds it without any gain. However, this precommitment, by preventing us from saying "if we refuse, it doesn't get built", also decreases the measure of worlds where it builds it without gaining.
Todays xkcd
I guess there'll be a fair bit of traffic coming from people looking it up?