In business, almost all executive decisions (headcount and budget allocation, which unproven products to push ahead with aggressively, translating forecasts for macroeconomic risks into business-specific policies, who to promote to other executive level positions, etc.) are made with substantial uncertainty. Or to put it another way, any executive-level decision-maker would be paralyzed without strong priors. This is especially true in fast-changing or competitive markets, where the only way to collect more evidence without direct risk is to let your competitors jump in the water first.
In other words, the kind of certainty we hold out for (often vainly) in science is almost unknown in many aspects of business, and the most critical decisions are often the most uncertain.
It's very "Black Swan" (in the sense of Taleb's whole, not just tail risk).
Thoughts?
any executive-level decision-maker would be paralyzed without strong prior
I don't think that's necessarily true, just having a high risk tolerance works as well. I also think you underestimate the amount of evidence present -- e.g. in most organizations the next-year budget is a variation on the previous year's budget.
the kind of certainty we hold out for (often vainly) in science is almost unknown in many aspects of business
Yes, of course. That's why, for example, risk management is an important part of doing business but is not normally a big part of doing science...
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