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Lumifer comments on Open thread, Dec. 1 - Dec. 7, 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion

3 Post author: MrMind 01 December 2014 08:29AM

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Comment author: Lumifer 02 December 2014 05:41:13PM 2 points [-]

Ah, I see. I think I misread how the parentheses nest in your post :-)

So you have no information on the actual maintenance cost of cryopreservation and are just working backwards from what Alcor charges.

2.5%

I'm having doubts about this number, but that's not a finance thread. And anyway, in this context what matters is not reality, but Alcor's estimates.

A really conservative figure would of course be zero

That's debatable -- inflation can decimate your wealth easily enough. Currently inflation-adjusted Treasury bonds (TIPS) trade at negative yields.

Comment author: gjm 02 December 2014 07:26:32PM 0 points [-]

you have no information on the actual maintenance cost

Correct.

I'm having doubts about this number

I did try to make it as clear as I could that I do too...

That's debatable

Well, I defined it as the maximum amount you can take out without running out of money. I agree that if instead you define it as the maximum net outflow that (with some probability close to 1) leaves your fortune increasing rather than decreasing in both long and short terms, it could be negative in times of economic stagnation.