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Luke_A_Somers comments on Make your own cost-effectiveness Fermi estimates for one-off problems - Less Wrong Discussion

9 Post author: owencb 11 December 2014 12:00PM

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Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 11 December 2014 12:33:00PM 1 point [-]

If you take time out of this equation it becomes far more general.

Comment author: owencb 11 December 2014 12:35:12PM 1 point [-]

But I think less usefully applicable? Would love to hear more precisely what you mean.

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 11 December 2014 12:47:32PM 1 point [-]

It would be simple to put it back in by taking the time derivative. By not forcing time in to begin with you can just consider total effort and probability per effort rather than having to mix in considerations of time.

Comment author: owencb 11 December 2014 01:09:59PM 2 points [-]

So my initial model did essentially that. But you can't reasonably estimate cost-effectiveness without considering time, because the counterfactual when you don't do the work is that it gets done later -- you need an idea of how much later to know how valuable it is.