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owencb comments on Make your own cost-effectiveness Fermi estimates for one-off problems - Less Wrong Discussion

9 Post author: owencb 11 December 2014 12:00PM

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Comment author: owencb 14 December 2014 02:24:58PM 1 point [-]

My estimates:

R(0): I'm very unsure. It seems like it's at least in the hundreds of millions of dollars, and not higher than tens of billions of dollars. So I will guess $5 billion. I've put little research into this and this number could easily update a lot.

B: Based on some of the estimates in this paper, emigration of 5% might add in the region of $2.5 trillion to the world economy.

y/z: If $1,000 of resources were dedicated annually to this for each of the ~2 billion people living in the rich world, I'd be happy that there was a significant chance of success. So I'll estimate that y/z = 2000/5 = 400.