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DataPacRat comments on Open thread, Dec. 15 - Dec. 21, 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion

2 Post author: Gondolinian 15 December 2014 12:01AM

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Comment author: DataPacRat 15 December 2014 12:10:55AM *  2 points [-]

Trends at 2050?

How many linear or logarithmic trends can be forecast out as far as the year 2050? I once found some graphs of CPU speed and storage per dollar per year, but seem to have lost them; and now I'm curious what other trend-lines might be worth thinking about.

(I've been writing a story, and would be happy to make whatever such details I include as plausible as possible, while also acknowledging that relying on such trends is a mug's game.)

Comment author: gwern 15 December 2014 12:44:30AM 4 points [-]

I once found some graphs of CPU speed and storage per dollar per year

https://intelligence.org/2014/05/12/exponential-and-non-exponential/ ?

Comment author: DataPacRat 15 December 2014 01:20:59AM 0 points [-]

Those sorts of graphs, yes; except I saw ones extending the trend lines out to 2050.

Comment author: Alsadius 15 December 2014 06:41:13AM 0 points [-]

I'm not sure if it'll keep going, but the Flynn effect(rising IQ over time) is mysterious enough that continuation is possible, and might be interesting.