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Capla comments on How is the world different if I make a donation? - Less Wrong Discussion
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But your calculation changes if you have even a small amount of information about the timetables. Can we get this information from the organizations in question?
You can figure out things in the short term that way, but if you want to know if the marginal money will be used in a year, you'll have to know every project they run in the mean time and how much each will cost. This will include projects that haven't even been planned yet.
This isn't a train that doesn't hold close to its time table. This is a train that leaves when it seems like a good idea. And you're trying to predict the time to within a few minutes weeks ahead of time. You won't even be able to predict which train you'd catch.